AP Analysis: Congressional delegation to face more challenges in election
by Errin Haines
Associated Press Writer
May 01, 2010 12:00 AM | 303 views | 0 0 comments | 4 4 recommendations | email to a friend | print
ATLANTA - The members of Georgia's congressional delegation will confront more challengers this year than they're used to, with several facing contested primary and general elections as a national wave of anti-incumbent sentiment appears to be surfacing in Georgia.

Three incumbents face opposition in the July 20 primary and nine face a contest in November. Only two are running unopposed. Two House seats are open.

"The incumbents will have to work harder, will have to raise more money and spend more time on the campaign trail," said University of Georgia political science professor Charles Bullock.

Most of the action will be in the Republican primaries. Challengers seem eager to tap into voters unhappy about the stimulus, the federal health care law and a sputtering economy.

Real tests of incumbents have been rare in recent years, with just a few candidates mounting a challenge. This year is different.

"That indicates the unrest that a lot of voters have with what's going on in Washington, but it's unclear that there's going to be any substantial change, unless there's a real wave," said Emory University political science professor Merle Black. If there is, he said, it would likely benefit Republicans,

Rep. Nathan Deal resigned in March to seek the Republican nomination for governor. Eight candidates, including a Democrat and an Independent, are competing to succeed him in a May 11 special election. The winner will likely get an early jump on the general election, but will have to face more rounds of campaigning.

Rep. John Linder is not seeking re-election. Of the nine candidates who have qualified to replace him, eight are Republican and only one is a current state lawmaker, Rep. Clay Cox (R-Lilburn).

That more state legislators did not jump at the open seat after Linder made his surprise announcement in February was stunning, said Bullock.

"I would've thought there'd been all kinds of pent-up ambition there, and a manifestation of that would've been multiple state legislators jumping in," he continued. "That's usually a launching pad to win a congressional campaign, that is you've been in the Legislature."

State Sen. Don Balfour (R-Snellville) had announced his intent to run for Linder's seat, but he later changed his mind and is seeking re-election.

U.S. Rep. Hank Johnson will face two Democratic primary challengers as he looks to earn a second term. Both contenders - former DeKalb County Chief Executive Officer Vernon Jones and DeKalb County Commissioner Connie Stokes - emerged soon after Johnson announced he has been suffering from hepatitis C.

Although neither candidate has directly referenced Johnson's health, Bullock said it's likely an issue in the race.

If Johnson wins the primary he will face one of four Republicans. The general election would likely be an less of a struggle for Johnson, an African American Democrat in a district that is heavily African-American and Democratic.

Other members of the delegation may have an easier time during the primary, but some could face strong opposition in the fall, particularly in the central Georgia district of Democratic Rep. Jim Marshall, where three Republicans are vying for the job - including state Rep. Austin Scott.

Scott, a Tifton Republican, is a 14-year veteran of the state Legislature. He is seen by many as having the contacts, campaign experience and fundraising ability to compete against the three-term congressman.

"He's an experienced office holder," said Merle Black, an Emory University political science professor. "It's unclear whether he could defeat Marshall, but he'd be a serious

candidate."

Another race is also shaping up for the U.S. Senate seat now held by Republican Johnny Isakson. The incumbent does not face a primary challenger, but he will take on the winner of a Democratic primary between Labor Commissioner Michael Thurmond and R.J. Hadley.

Qualifying for the July 20 primary election and the Nov. 2 general election ended Friday.
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